‘Arnav’ likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm: Risk of snowfall
KATHMANDU:- A powerful low-pressure area that developed in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a cyclone. Both the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of Nepal and the India Meteorological Department have identified this cyclone as ‘Arnav’.
Following its transformation into a cyclone on Monday, Arnav is moving toward the Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, prompting the issuance of a high-alert warning for those regions. Over the past six hours, it has been moving westward at a speed of 15 kilometers per hour. Cyclone ‘Arnav’ is centered at 15.4° N latitude and 88.9° E longitude in the Bay of Bengal, located approximately 590 kilometers northwest of the Andaman Islands.
The India Meteorological Department has stated that there is a high probability of the cyclone intensifying further into an ‘extremely severe cyclonic storm’ by Tuesday. According to the department, it will subsequently move in a northwesterly direction and cross the coast of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, near Visakhapatnam.During this period, the wind speed of the cyclone is estimated to be between 115 and 125 kilometers per hour. By Wednesday morning, the cyclone’s wind speed will intensify, reaching 140 kilometers per hour.
After wreaking havoc along the coastal regions of India’s Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on Tuesday afternoon, the weather system is expected to merge with other atmospheric systems and head toward Nepal. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has stated that the impact of the cyclone will reach Nepal starting Wednesday night, leading to heavy rainfall in various parts of the country from Thursday. Meteorologist Rojhan Lamichhane noted that, beyond rainfall, there is a high possibility of severe snowfall in the Himalayan region.
The rainfall is set to be prolonged as the water vapor brought by the cyclone collides with a low-pressure trough in the upper atmosphere. According to the official, given the likelihood of nationwide cloud cover and rain, special caution may be required—up until Saturday—in the Kathmandu Valley, as well as in the Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces.
He stated, “We will have to wait another two days to determine the extent of heavy rainfall and snowfall in specific areas; however, the possibility of heavy snowfall in the Himalayan region cannot be ruled out.” As the system moves toward western Nepal, its impact is expected to diminish, making significant rainfall there less likely.
Releasing a five-day weather forecast, the division has advised farmers to bring in any paddy that has already been harvested by Wednesday. Meteorologist Lamichhane has urged people to avoid traveling in the Himalayan region during this period, as it is currently the season for trekking and mountaineering. He added, “Due to the likelihood of heavy snowfall, trekking trails may be buried by avalanches, and base camps could also experience significant snow accumulation; therefore, trekkers should remain in safe locations.”
The Department has requested that people avoid traveling between cities or to villages over the next few days as much as possible; if travel is unavoidable, they should first check the weather conditions. Binod Pokharel, a meteorologist at the Central Department of Meteorology at Tribhuvan University, has also pointed out that various weather models indicate a high probability of precipitation. According to him, there is a possibility of heavy rainfall and significant snowfall in many areas starting Thursday.
