Exit polls suggest no clear winner in Israel’s election, but Netanyahu is far from defeated

By TIA GOLDENBERG and SAM MEDNICK,  JERUSALEM (AP):- Israeli voters delivered a rebuke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ‘s far-right and religious governing coalition, but exit polls Wednesday suggested the election had no clear winner and indicated that the long-serving Israeli leader was far from defeated after three years of war ignited on his watch.

The exit polls suggested voters gave opponents of the current government a solid majority in the next parliament. But it’s not clear if those disparate parties — which include Arab-led factions who appear to have made a historic showing — are willing to form a coalition. If they are, it would likely take weeks of haggling.

At an appearance early Wednesday, Netanyahu was upbeat and already trying to position himself to remain prime minister, listing off military achievements of the past three years. He called on his opponents to line up behind him and dismissed the idea of a partnership with Arab parties — whose constituents make up 20% of Israel’s population — as treasonous.

“We must establish a strong, right-wing, nationalist government,” said Netanyahu, who was facing off in the vote against his former military chief, centrist Gadi Eisenkot. “We must not endanger Israel and establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties.”

While exit polls indicated Netanyahu would face a difficult path to return to office, in his defiant speech he made clear he had no intention of stepping aside. Even if he is unable to form a government, Netanyahu’s inflammatory rhetoric against the Arab parties could complicate any attempt by his opponents to partner with them and sets the stage for a potential new vote where the Israeli leader could make gains.

Eisenkot has left the door open to partnering with Arab parties under certain conditions, but some of his other likely partners have ruled it out.

The close results also suggest that Netanyahu’s opponents were unable to capitalize on the public anger and grief sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attacks to decisively unseat Netanyahu.

A setback for Netanyahu but not an outright defeat

Israel’s leader, a savvy political operator who has delivered last-minute upsets in previous elections, appeared to have been rebuked by voters disappointed in his alliance with the far-right and angry over draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

The exit polls by major Israeli TV stations suggested Netanyahu’s governing coalition shrunk, jeopardizing his ability to form a government. Although exit polls suggested Netanyahu’s Likud party dropped from 32 seats to around 27, it would remain the largest party and best placed to be asked to form a government.

Like all surveys, exit polls are subject to potential error. Final results are expected in the coming days, including from hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots yet to be counted, and may vary from the exit polls.

The exit polls suggested that Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s each won about 51 seats, and Arab parties won about 18. That would set the stage for weeks of political jockeying before a prime minister is declared — or another round of elections is called.

The easiest path to a parliamentary majority would involve Eisenkot partnering with Arab-led parties, but that could prove politically difficult and potentially alienate other opposition factions.

In a sign of the uncertainty ahead, the mood at both Eisenkot and Netanyahu’s headquarters was celebratory. In a speech early Wednesday that focused on national unity, Eisenkot pledged to form a government and promised “a new era — an era of hope” for Israelis.

“Today, Israel went out to a referendum over the leadership that will lead Israel in the coming years,” Eisenkot said to cheers from supporters. “The people decided in favor of change.”

Arab-led parties represent Israel’s Palestinian citizens

Israel’s Arab citizens, the descendants of Palestinians who remained in the state after its creation in 1948, have citizenship and hold senior jobs in many sectors, but face discrimination and are often viewed as a fifth column because of their solidarity with the Palestinian cause.That suspicion only intensified after Oct. 7.

Netanyahu warned earlier Tuesday that Arab parties could make or break the election, saying they were receiving “truly massive support” and heading to the polls in “unprecedented numbers.”

The mood was joyful at the headquarters of the United Arab List, the lone Arab party to ever join a governing coalition, briefly, in 2021.

“We are here, we are not on the sidelines,” party leader Mansour Abbas told supporters. “Our duty and responsibility in the United Arab List is to turn this voting bloc into a major political force.”

The race was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly unbroken 17-year rule, which had left Israelis bitterly divided on a host of issues even before the deadliest attack in the country’s history. The resulting wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have stoked worldwide outrage, straining ties with Israel’s closest allies and fueling a rise in antisemitism.

Among Israelis, the election was broadly viewed as a struggle over the character of the state, pitting Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies against those seeking to preserve its liberal and secular foundations. The opposition may soon have to grapple with the social divisions — between right and left, and between Jews and Arabs — that have widened during Netanyahu’s long and polarizing rule.

The process of coalition building will begin

Israel’s president will be tasked with asking the party leader with the best prospect of forming a government, usually one with the most seats, to cobble together a coalition. If Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud emerges as the largest party, he could claim that right.Meanwhile, there will be heavy pressure on Eisenkot to reach a deal with the Arab parties, while Netanyahu and his allies are likely to cast any such alliance as illegitimate and even treasonous.

If no one can cobble together a majority coalition, new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.

No single party has ever won an outright majority in the country’s 120-seat parliament, forcing political leaders to forge coalitions. Minority governments are also possible, but they must rely on support or cooperation from parties outside the government to pass legislation.

Netanyahu’s current coalition peaked at 68 members before it began to disintegrate over the past year.

Netanyahu’s supporters see him as a steady hand and a consummate statesman who has led Israel through a war of redemption after the country’s darkest hour. They think he is protecting Israel’s security and Jewish identity in the face of international pressure and liberal elites at home.

His detractors see him as a polarizing leader who, beset by an ongoing corruption trial, dragged out the war in Gaza and its hostage crisis for political reasons. They say he is undermining Israel’s independent judiciary and weakening its democratic underpinnings. And they accuse him of abetting the system that has allowed ultra-Orthodox religious Jews to avoid military conscription.

“The present government is driving the country into the ground,” voter Angela Bengur said in Jerusalem.

Eisenkot is viewed by supporters as a capable leader with sterling security credentials who, along with his likely governing partners, could act as a bulwark against creeping illiberalism. As someone personally touched by the conflict — his son and two nephews were killed in Gaza — his backers believe that he feels deeply the pain that still courses through Israel.

Parties that likely would support Eisenkot have vowed to improve Israel’s international standing and work to conscript ultra-Orthodox men while bolstering the independence of the judiciary.

The election is Israel’s first national vote since the Oct. 7 attack, which sparked the war in Gaza and related conflicts.

Israel has found itself increasingly isolated over its conduct in Gaza and the West Bank. Public support among Americans has plummeted, and partners in Europe and elsewhere have slapped sanctions on Israel. Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, allegations he denies.